Nearly Half of Corporate Mergers End in Breakup, MIT Research Finds
Corporate marriages are failing at an alarming rate, and the divorces are taking a decade to finalize.
Nearly half of all mergers and acquisitions eventually unwind, according to new research published this week in MIT Sloan Management Review. The study, conducted by Henrik Cronqvist and Désirée-Jessica Pély, found that these failed deals take an average of 10 years to come apart—a timeline that should terrify any CFO currently integrating an acquisition or contemplating the next one.
For finance leaders navigating M&A strategy, the findings offer a sobering reality check. The research reveals that most merger failures stem from two core problems: poor initial fit between the combining companies and unforeseen disruptions that emerge after the deal closes. Both scenarios ultimately destroy shareholder value and consume leadership attention that could be deployed elsewhere.
The 10-year unwinding timeline is particularly notable. It suggests that many problematic deals don't fail spectacularly—they die slowly, bleeding value and management focus for nearly a decade before executives finally admit defeat. That's 10 years of distracted leadership, 10 years of integration costs, and 10 years of shareholders wondering why the promised synergies never materialized.
The researchers developed what they describe as a "research-backed framework" designed to help executives diagnose which deals are likely to succeed and which are destined for the scrap heap. The framework focuses on identifying structural problems early, before they metastasize into the kind of slow-motion disasters that define failed M&A.
The timing of the research is notable. As of February 2026, corporate dealmaking continues despite persistent economic uncertainty, and finance leaders are under pressure to deploy capital strategically. The nearly 50% failure rate suggests that roughly half of the deals being announced today will eventually be undone—a coin-flip proposition that should give pause to any executive contemplating a transformative acquisition.
For CFOs, the research raises uncomfortable questions about deal diligence and post-merger integration. If poor initial fit is a primary driver of failure, it implies that many doomed deals are greenlit despite warning signs visible at the outset. The challenge isn't just identifying good targets—it's having the discipline to walk away from deals that look appealing on paper but lack fundamental strategic coherence.
The unforeseen disruptions category is trickier. Markets shift, technologies evolve, and competitive dynamics change. But the research suggests that some "unforeseen" problems might actually be foreseeable with better scenario planning and stress-testing of deal assumptions.
What the study makes clear is that merger failure isn't a quick, clean event. It's a protracted unwinding that absorbs leadership bandwidth and destroys value over an extended period. For finance leaders evaluating potential deals, the question isn't just whether an acquisition makes sense today—it's whether it will still make sense in five years, or seven, or ten, when the true test of strategic fit becomes apparent.
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